The study included around 12,000 patients
with 49,169 person-years (PY) of follow-up. Over the course of
follow-up, there
were 1083 incident TB cases (incidence rate (IR)=2.2/100PY); 95%
confidence
interval (CI):2,1 to 2.3). Males had a somewhat higher incidence rate than
women,
2.4/100PY (95% CI 2.2 to 2.4 vs 1.9/100PY (95% CI 1.7 to 2.1). Among those
with CD4
cells below 200mm3, the incidence rate was 3.1/100PY (95% CI 2.8 to 3.4) but
people
with higher CD4 cell counts had lower incidence rates.
The provision of IPT reduced the incidence
rate of TB from 2.3/100PY (95% CI 2.2 to 2.4) down to 1.5/100PY (95% CI
1.2 to 1.9)
–
a drop of 35%. ART also reduced the risk from an incidence rate of
3.4/100PY
(95% CI 3.1 to 3.7) among those not on ART to 1.7/100PY (95% CI 1.6 to 1.8) on
ART
–
a drop of 50%.
Results were then stratified for all the
patient by TST status. The background incidence rate remains the same at
2.2/100PY, but the incidence rate for those who were TST-positive who
did not
go onto IPT was extremely high at 14.9/100PY (95% CI 12.8 to 17.5).
However, when
those TST-positive people were given IPT, there was a reduction of
around 90%,
with an incidence rate of 1.6/100PY (95% CI 1.3 to 2.1).
Among TST negatives, there were low rates
of TB whether given IPT or not (consistent
with last year’s findings from the BOTUSA trial).
However, the group that the study team was
most interested in were the TST unknowns (who were never tested). Among
this
population, IPT achieved a 50% reduction in TB incidence, going from an
incidence rate of 2.5/100PY (95% CI 2.3 to 2.7) for those not on IPT down
to
1.2/100PY (95% CI 0.7 to 20). (It should be noted that far fewer in this
group got
IPT, however).
Then the researchers stratified this group
of ‘unknowns’ based upon whether they were on ART. Giving IPT to people
who
were taking ART reduced the incidence of TB by about 35% (from 1.7/100PY
(95%
CI 1.6 to 2.0) to 1.1/100PY (95% CI 0.6 to 2.0, although these confidence
intervals overlap). Among the ‘unknowns’ not on ART, there was an
approximately
60% reduction in those who received IPT from 3.8/100PY (95% CI 3.4 to 4.3)
to
1.4/100PY (95% CI 0.4 to 4.3)
– although again these confidence intervals
overlap,
probably because few people not on ART had been put on IPT.
But what would happen if the TST were not
performed (or at least didn’t need to be performed for a person to get
IPT)?
The researchers
looked at the data on at all the people who were eligible for a TST from
the
time the intervention began at the clinic, and followed them until they received IPT, received a TB diagnosis, died, or the follow-up ended.
What they
found was a rate of 1.5/100PY (95% CI 1.3 to 1.7) for the group overall.
The rates
were higher for those who were on follow-up for 6 months or 12 months.
“What this means is that if we had given IPT
to these patients instead of making them wait to get a TST and act upon
that
result into for their TST, we could have prevented a large amount of TB
at an
earlier time,” said Dr Golub.
Theresearchers then looked at people who were eligible for a TST, and followed them until one was performed (and a result was received). Among those who were categorised as 'unknown' and then tested positive, the incidence rate was extremely high, at 22.0/100PY (95% CI 17.3 to 27.6). The incidence was very low among those who tested TST-negative but was twice as high among those who remained unknown, at 1.9/100PY (95% CI 1.6 to 2.3). These results again underscore that TB cases could be prevented by earlier IPT among TST unknowns.