Without treatment,
a large proportion of HIV-positive people live for a decade or more before the
virus begins to take a noticeable toll.i In addition, there is a small proportion
of people with HIV who have immune systems that can naturally resist replication
of the virus for an indefinite period of time.4
Some people may have outdated concepts of
the harm caused by HIV because earlier antiretroviral drugs and combinations did
not treat HIV effectively. For more than 15
years after AIDS was recognised in 1981, even those people who had access to
the best existing antiretroviral drugs did not have a favourable prognosis.
However, the
discovery of new classes of antiretrovirals in the late 1990s resulted in
dramatic reductions in HIV-related illnesses and deaths in high-income
countries. For example, the age-adjusted HIV-related death rate in the United States
dropped from 17 per 100,000 people in 1995 to about five per 100,000 people by
the end of the decade.5 Similar
declines were seen in other high-income countries.6
Large-scale
studies have since provided compelling evidence that if people begin taking
antiretroviral therapy (ART), at the recommended time,ii before
significant damage has occurred to the immune system, they are likely to go on
to have a normal or near-normal lifespan.7,8,9 However, if
people for whom ART is recommended remain untreated – or if they remain
undiagnosed for an extended period of time – an increased
risk of illness or death remains.
Consequently, the
outlook for people with HIV depends very much on whether they are aware of
their HIV status and live in places where high-quality health care is available
and affordable. Thus, the impact of HIV on physical wellbeing may vary by
setting and the individual's ability to obtain HIV-related treatment, care and
support.
In
resource-limited countries an ongoing public health campaign of unprecedented
scope is gradually leading to the increased availability of ART.10 More than
four million people in low- and middle-income countries were receiving ART at
the close of 2008, representing a 36% increase in one year and a ten-fold
increase over five years.11 For those
who do succeed in gaining access to ART in such settings, good outcomes have
been observed12,13 and
antiretroviral treatment programmes have documented notable decreases in
HIV-related mortality.14
Treatment access
is not the only determinant of the impact of HIV on physical wellbeing. Not
everyone responds optimally to ART, and some who do may go on to develop drug
resistance that can impact upon further treatment options, although clinically
important drug resistance is now seen much less commonly thanks to earlier
treatment and better drugs.15,16,17 In addition, members of disenfranchised groups,18,19
people living in poverty20,21
and residents of rural areas may disproportionately fail to benefit from access
to testing, treatment and care, particularly in low-income settings.22,23,24
i. UNAIDS/WHO now
note that the average number of years that people living with HIV are estimated
to survive without treatment has increased from nine to eleven years: see UNAIDS
AIDS epidemic update December 2007, and associated press releases and other reports, available from
the UNAIDS
website at www.unaids.org.
ii. National and local
guidelines on the recommended time to start treatment can vary. At one extreme,
the San Francisco Department of Public Health guidelines now recommend everyone
who tests HIV-positive should consider starting immediately: see ‘City Endorses
New Policy for Treatment of HIV’ New York
Times, 2 April 2010. WHO recommends
starting antiretroviral treatment in all patients with HIV who have a CD4 count
< 350 cells/mm3, irrespective of
clinical symptoms.