Because of losses in the first six months, 1655 people were included in the final ITT analysis, 1318 in the per protocol analysis. Overall, 36 month (continuous) IPT reduced the risk of TB by 56% compared to six months of IPT followed by placebo. See details in table.
TB incidence by treatment arm
| | Intent to treat | Per protocol |
| | 6-IPT | 36-IPT | 6-IPT | 36-IPT |
| Number analysed | 821 | 834 | 665 | 653 |
| TB | | | | |
| Definite TB | 16 | 9 | 12 | 6 |
| Probable TB | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Possible TB | 7 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| All incident TB | 25 | 12 | 19 | 8 |
| TB rate per 100py | 1.39 | 0.61 | 1.1 | 0.51 |
| Hazard ratio | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| P value (<0.05) | 0.029 | 0.039 |
| | 56% reduction | 57% reduction |
One of the key questions that the study intended to answer was how long people remain protected from TB after finishing a six month course of isoniazid. The answer, unfortunately, is not very long. After about 200 days (six months), people who were randomised to placebo began developing active TB at a rate that was significantly higher than seen in the 36-IPT arm.
Another key study objective was to determine whether treatment TST status affected outcomes in this setting. To the consternation of many policy makers in the room, it did.
Of the 1594 subjects for whom TST results and data were available, 400 were TST positive. In the 6-IPT arm, there was a TB rate of 2.53 cases per 100 person years (12 cases of TB) vs 0.19 (or one case) in the continuous IPT arm. This yielded a hazard ratio of 0.08 (p = 0.015). In other words, there was a 92% reduction in TB on continuous IPT.
The 1194 people with negative TST results had a TB case rate of 0.92 (13 cases) in the 6-IPT arm versus 0.78 (11 cases) in the 36-IPT arm — for a hazard ratio of 0.86, (p-value non-significant). In other words, treating almost 1200 TST-negative people with IPT for an additional 30 months reduced TB cases by only 14%, resulting in two fewer cases) and even this apparent reduction may have been a chance result.
Many of the TST-negatives probably had relatively high CD4 cell counts and had probably never been infected by mTB and/or may have had relative lower risks of MTB infection. IPT would be expected to have less of an impact in that population.
More worrisome are the TB cases that occurred despite treatment. Most of these cases in TST negatives were probably in people who were anergic, in other words, exposed to MTB but unable to mount an adequate immune defence to it. However, no data on median CD4 counts in TST-positive and negative groups were presented, nor the median CD4 count in TB cases in the TST-negative group).
In a conversation after his presentation, Dr Samandari posited that without support from the immune system, IPT may not be up to the task of fighting off TB on its own. However, there may be other mechanisms as well due to differences isoniazid metabolism and bioavailability in people with very advanced immune suppression. Also a subset of people with very low CD4 cells may have established TB infections somewhere in their body without clinically apparent symptoms — meaning that IPT in these people was simply suboptimal treatment.
ART (which was initiated at different times but evenly distributed in the two arms of the study) however had an impact on risk in people who were TST negative. A Cox regression model, including the interaction of IPT, baseline CD4 and TST, looked at the affect of ART over time and how it interacted with TST and IPT.
The model found that for each extra day on ART, the risk of TB decreased by 0.23 percent (p=0.04). When provided for 360 days, the risk of TB was reduced by 50% when IPT was not included. However, the addition of ART to IPT didn’t seem to add much benefit - around 4% in TST positives taking IPT.
More importantly, the addition of IPT to ART in TST-negative participants only seemed reduce the risk of TB by an additional 4% (54%) — so ART did not seem to restore their ability to respond to IPT.