Prof. Farquhar and colleagues conducted a prospective study in Nairobi to determine whether they could identify any other factors that contribute to in utero transmission.
From 1999-2002, they attempted to enrol HIV-infected women attending Nairobi city clinics before the 32nd week of pregnancy. At the enrolment visit, histories were obtained with specific questions about illness during pregnancy, and women were screened for sexually transmitted infections, which were then treated, as well as candida and bacterial vaginosis (which was not treated since the samples were not evaluated until after the study’s conclusion).
Participants were given AZT beginning from week 34 to 36 of pregnancy until delivery and encouraged to come into the hospital for delivery, where nurse midwives obtained plasma and cervical specimens for viral load measurements. Infants also had a blood draw at birth which was tested by both HIV RNA and DNA PCR. In utero transmission was defined as either a positive RNA or DNA test by 48 hours. Follow-up and HIV testing of the infants continued until one year after birth.
Approximately 36,000 women were seen at the clinics; 88% consented to being tested for HIV; and 14% were identified as HIV-positive. Of these women, 463 agreed to participate in the study and were followed through delivery.
Out of the 463 pregnancies, there were 88 HIV-infected infants, 77 infant deaths and 48 infants were lost to follow-up.
Of the HIV infected infants, 29 (33%) tested positive at birth and were thus infected in utero. This represented an in utero transmission rate of 6.3% — one third of all HIV infections in this cohort. Thirty-seven (42%) of the infants were uninfected at birth but tested positive by month one and were thus infected during delivery or by early breastmilk exposure; ten infants were infected via breastmilk after month one; and precise timing of infection could not be determined for twelve infants for whom specimens were unavailable at birth.
Infant and maternal characteristics for the 29 infants known to be infected in utero were then compared to those of the 422 who were either not infected or who became infected later.
In univariate analyses, mean plasma viral loads and cervical viral loads were approximately a half log higher in women who transmitted in utero (p<0.001). CD4 cell counts however did not differ (although CD4% was lower in transmitting women, p=0.008). Women who transmitted in utero were also less likely to have received at least three weeks of AZT (p=0.04).
Lower infant gestational age was significantly associated with greater transmission risk (p=0.01) and there was a trend for female babies to be more likely to be infected (p= 0.06).
An antenatal diagnosis of a sexually transmitted infection (which included gonorrhoea, chlamydia, trichomonas) was not associated with in utero transmission, but it should be noted that these infections received prompt treatment in this study.
However, BV was diagnosed in significantly more women (59%) who transmitted in utero than in those who did not (35%). BV is relatively common in resource limited settings, and associated with altered vaginal flora, specifically a reduction in lactobacilli and a greater proportion of other bacteria.
In addition, women who transmitted were more likely to have had an AIDS-defining illness in the previous year (p=0.01), and a greater proportion of women who transmitted in utero reported an illness such as fever, cough and diarrhoea during pregnancy (p=0.01).
The researchers then conducted a multivariate analysis that adjusted for 32-week viral load, CD4 percent, and duration of AZT use. Viral load (plasma and cervical) remained highly predictive of in utero transmission conferring a 1.9- and 1.5-fold increased (respectively) risk per log difference in viral load. Receipt of more than three weeks of AZT also remained protective, when adjusting for viral load and disease stage.
Finally, BV and illness during pregnancy were also independent predictors of tranmission in this model. Women with BV were 3-fold more likely to transmit, and women with illness during pregnancy 2.6-fold more likely to transmit.